Buying And Selling: Hindsight

I never thought I'd see the day when Reverend Moon's personal newsletter would know its head from its arse when it came to the bubble:

"It was like the greater fool theory -- there has got to be a fool out there who's willing to pay even more than me for this house. At some point, you run out of fools," he said. Mr. Cruise, a former television reporter, credits a nationwide rash of publicity a year ago warning of a housing bubble for prompting people to stop and think more carefully before buying.

Every bubble blogger in the world should be getting cramps from all the back-patting right now.

It's interesting to note, living in D.C., that the condos are still going up, the office development is still coming hot and heavy, and there's a massive parking lot downtown to accomodate all the new business we'll be getting...and yet, there are signs of a sort of "anti-bubble" market on the rise as well. Take this interesting ad from a "renovated" apartment-building-turned-condo called The Grant.

$189,000 for condos in D.C.? Sounds amazing. But note, that's for the studio. You could probably have a closet, maybe a kitchen, and a hammock if you're lucky. Not to mention that there's NOTHING interactive about the site. No property views, no pictures, no nothing. Having seen the building in question, I think it's safe to say there's a reason for that.

There will be a time when $189k is considered high-end for D.C. again...it's inevitable. Too much inventory, too little sales, too much fear of the entire economy crumbling. The cycle will come around again. Hindsight is 20-20, but it only works if you can actually SEE, and too many people nestle their brains in the wrong part of the anatomy to pay attention to what's really going on.

Posted at July 28, 2006 05:11 PM

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I never thought I'd see the day when Reverend Moon's personal newsletter would know its head from its arse when it came to the bubble: "It was like the greater fool theory -- there has got to be a fool out there who's willing to pay even more than me for this house. At some point, you run out of fools," he said. Mr. Cruise, a former television reporter, credits a nationwide rash of publicity a year ago warning of a housing bubble for prompting people to stop and think more carefully before buying. Every bubble blogger in the world should be getting cramps from all the back-patting right now. It's interesting to note, living in D.C., that the condos are still going up, the office development is still coming hot and heavy, and there's a massive parking lot downtown to accomodate all the new business we'll be getting...and yet, there are signs of a sort of "anti-bubble" market on the rise as well. Take this interesting ad from a "renovated" apartment-building-turned-condo called The Grant. $189,000 for condos in D.C.? Sounds amazing. But note, that's for the studio. You could probably have a closet, maybe a kitchen, and a hammock if you're lucky. Not to mention that there's NOTHING interactive about the site. No property views, no pictures, no nothing. Having seen the building in question, I think it's safe to say there's a reason for that. There will be a time when $189k is considered high-end for D.C. again...it's inevitable. Too much inventory, too little sales, too much fear of the entire economy crumbling. The cycle will come around again. Hindsight is 20-20, but it only works if you can actually SEE, and too many people nestle their brains in the wrong part of the anatomy to pay attention to what's really going on.