Housing Market: Watching David Lereah

The mighty Bubble Meter has recently launched David Lereah Watch, a blog dedicated to upending the worm-infested rock upon which Mr. Lereah prognosticates like the Thinker.

I am all for this. I'm tired of watching major media quote this guy uncritically again and again, like he's the Oracle at Delphi or something. Here's a perfect example of what I mean, nicely captured by BM as well:

"That's what spurred all this on in the beginning," says David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist. "It's like all the stars are aligned. The tax situations helped, but at the same time, baby boomers were entering their peak earning years. That's why we just boomed in second homes."

"What's going to be leaving the market right now are the speculative investors who came into the market and were trying to flip homes," he said. "They were buying one, two, three or four properties at a time, and that was distorting the numbers."

Distorting the numbers, eh? Let's see what Lereah Watch has to say about that:

The conclusion for every market is the same. In the executive summary the reports conclude "With home prices rising strongly in most parts of the country, there has been widespread media coverage on the possibility of a housing market bust. A thorough analysis of the metro market, as detailed below, reveals that there is very little danger of this." ( Thanks Felix who posted over at Calculated Risk)

The only thing less fallible than the Internet when it comes to catching phonies in action is Uatu the Watcher. Not that we've got big heads or anything....

(Image courtesy of SHAFT AGENTS, sucka. Can you dig it?)

Posted at April 10, 2006 05:29 PM

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The mighty Bubble Meter has recently launched David Lereah Watch, a blog dedicated to upending the worm-infested rock upon which Mr. Lereah prognosticates like the Thinker. I am all for this. I'm tired of watching major media quote this guy uncritically again and again, like he's the Oracle at Delphi or something. Here's a perfect example of what I mean, nicely captured by BM as well: "That's what spurred all this on in the beginning," says David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist. "It's like all the stars are aligned. The tax situations helped, but at the same time, baby boomers were entering their peak earning years. That's why we just boomed in second homes." He thinks the trend crested in 2005. With rising interest rates, tighter lending standards and slower price appreciation, Lereah expects second-home sales to drop this year to 30 percent of all existing-home sales, and maybe into the 20 percent range. "What's going to be leaving the market right now are the speculative investors who came into the market and were trying to flip homes," he said. "They were buying one, two, three or four properties at a time, and that was distorting the numbers." Distorting the numbers, eh? Let's see what Lereah Watch has to say about that: The conclusion for every market is the same. In the executive summary the reports conclude "With home prices rising strongly in most parts of the country, there has been widespread media coverage on the possibility of a housing market bust. A thorough analysis of the metro market, as detailed below, reveals that there is very little danger of this." ( Thanks Felix who posted over at Calculated Risk) The only thing less fallible than the Internet when it comes to catching phonies in action is Uatu the Watcher. Not that we've got big heads or anything.... (Image courtesy of SHAFT AGENTS, sucka. Can you dig it?)