Housing.com News, Analysis & Opinion: Housing Bubble: Crunching the Numbers

There has been a drop in the median new home price over the last three months, which may be more meaningful. The weakness that we're seeing seems concentrated in high-end homes -- which we had expected in a period of rising interest rates. Mortgage rates are rising, so it's expensive to trade up. But with rates still far below their historical average, first-time homebuyers continue trying to get in before they rise further. The result is a shift in the mix of home sales toward smaller homes.

What's probably going to end up happening is that buyers who continually push for larger homes will find themselves dangerously overextended, particularly if they're first-time buyers, and even more so if they're using "creative loans" to get in on the house in question. Although I'm generally disdainful of the phrase "living within one's means," this is one situation where it applies. Does a family of three or four need a house that can comfortably seat seven or eight? :)

One of my trusted sources clued me in to a case of a large banking concern's mortgage subsidiary getting customer data lost. Even though they claim it's been found and untampered, I'd sure as hell be hesitant about dealing with these guys again. And note that this news isn't anywhere on their front page, like it should be. Granted, if I worked for this company, I'd be embarrassed about that, but there's such a thing as "sucking it up." Identity theft is a serious concern of everyone, and mortgage applications are a key way to provide enterprising thieves with all the info they need to make your life a living hell.

Disclaimer: Mortgage.com and Housing.com? Not related. That's probably obvious, but it never hurts to restate it.

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Business Week gives us a view of the Fed's rate-tightening moves and what that can mean for housing. The "Conflicting signals" paragraph is of particular interest to me: There has been a drop in the median new home price over the last three months, which may be more meaningful. The weakness that we're seeing seems concentrated in high-end homes -- which we had expected in a period of rising interest rates. Mortgage rates are rising, so it's expensive to trade up. But with rates still far below their historical average, first-time homebuyers continue trying to get in before they rise further. The result is a shift in the mix of home sales toward smaller homes. What's that about mixed messages? And the shift towards the trend towards smaller houses? What's probably going to end up happening is that buyers who continually push for larger homes will find themselves dangerously overextended, particularly if they're first-time buyers, and even more so if they're using "creative loans" to get in on the house in question. Although I'm generally disdainful of the phrase "living within one's means," this is one situation where it applies. Does a family of three or four need a house that can comfortably seat seven or eight? :) One of my trusted sources clued me in to a case of a large banking concern's mortgage subsidiary getting customer data lost. Even though they claim it's been found and untampered, I'd sure as hell be hesitant about dealing with these guys again. And note that this news isn't anywhere on their front page, like it should be. Granted, if I worked for this company, I'd be embarrassed about that, but there's such a thing as "sucking it up." Identity theft is a serious concern of everyone, and mortgage applications are a key way to provide enterprising thieves with all the info they need to make your life a living hell. Disclaimer: Mortgage.com and Housing.com? Not related. That's probably obvious, but it never hurts to restate it.