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Hurricanes, Housing, Bubbles....you know the rest


The wrath of Wilma has left nearly one million Florida residents without power. At particular risk are the elderly and sick. It's absolutely criminal that this isn't getting more media attention. The disaster relief efforts have had two tries to get it right, and botched the job yet again. It's a miracle there haven't been more deaths.

I know people on all sides of the political spectrum are salivating over the Libby indictments and the choice of "Little Scalia" to take the Supreme Court bench, but we have some major natural disasters to contend with, and the effects of these will be felt for a long time to come. Pay attention.

A blogger over at the Daily KOS has a heart-rending, yet optimistic look at life after Katrina. These are the kinds of accounts we need to remind us of how far-reaching these catastrophes are. Things don't magically get better just because talking heads and pundits stop paying attention.

Here's an interesting look at how the hurricanes' wake is fueling a real estate boom. It's all there--buying decrepit properties and flipping them, pushing out longtime residents for new development, and speculators pushing prices to stratospheric levels. The housing boom--and bubble--in a nutshell. As I predicted, the massive reconstruction effort will be what keeps the economy ticking, but the long-term costs will be onerous indeed.

How to bargain for a house, courtesy of the WSJ. This is heartening for buyers who've been feeling priced out of the market, and it should also give you an idea of just how absurd the prices have gotten. To wit:

"A year ago, you never would hear about going back for a price reduction," says Stephen Baird, president of Baird & Warner. "Now you hear it a little bit." To move a full-floor condo with a view of Lake Michigan, his firm cut the price to $2.975 million from $3.5 million.

Oh, $2.975 million? What a bargain! Man, it must be the 2-for-1 special at CVS this week!

Still, it's nice to see realtors and sellers actually putting effort into moving a property again. There is hope.

Speaking of the WSJ, I wanted to recommend an excellent article by June Fletcher on the importance of deciding whether to rent or buy. It came out on Friday, but the WSJ's online version hid it behind their fascist for-pay content wall. Bastards. If you want an idea of where Fletcher's coming from, listen to a recent NPR interview with her. She name-drops Las Vegas, which is appropriate given their continually exploding prices.

As an aside, I'd take the gangsters and strippers sunbathing in the nude over the rows of clone office buildings and McCondos any day. I'm just sayin'.

John Snow is sharing Ben Bernanke's Kool-Aid, as he declares that there is no housing bubble. Well, he's actually right about that. There is no single housing bubble. The bubbles are localized and regional, as evinced by softening prices in the Northeast and urban sectors of the Midwest, while the Rust Belt and the Gulf Coast boom. So props to him on that.

Of course, his solution to our economic woes is to put China in debt to us. I guess he must've gargled that Kool-Aid with castor oil. Oh, well, can't win 'em all.

Posted at October 31, 2005 04:57 PM

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